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Will France fall to populism?

In some ways it already has, argues political scientist Olivier Roy

Between the European parliament elections on June 9 and the forthcoming French parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7, France seems to have returned to a traditional pattern: left against right or, more precisely, “progressives” against “fascists”. The liberal centre, President Emmanuel Macron’s electoral base, has apparently collapsed, as has the former Gaullist party Les Républicains.

On the left, although the moderate Parti Socialiste recovered some ground on June 9, the political scene is dominated by the radical and very vocal La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which just trailed them. The Greens, meanwhile, can provide no more than a marginal boost for the left.

The earthquake is the advance of the far right. The Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen — formerly the Front National — won 31.5 per cent of the French votes for the European parliament, to which one should add the more radical Reconquête headed by Éric Zemmour, at 5.5 per cent.

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