Depending on which of the main parties’ manifestos you read, immigration to the UK is either too high or much too high and the next government will cut it. Unlike many other manifesto promises, this one will almost certainly be kept. Visa applications for work and study are down 30 per cent this year already, while emigration is rising. Applications for work visas in the health and care sector have fallen by an astonishing 75 per cent.
Good news for a Labour government? Only in a very narrow sense. The impact of the pandemic and its aftermath on the UK’s labour force, in particular the rise in the number of people out of work because of sickness and disability, has been well publicised. Less obvious has been the extent to which this has been offset by migration, with recent arrivals both much younger and more likely to work than the resident population. There are well over a million more people born outside the EU working in the UK than before the pandemic.
A sharp fall in migration will therefore be a drag on both growth and the public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that a “low migration” scenario would push up the deficit by £13bn at the end of the next parliament, even after taking account of the reduced need for spending on public services. That’s twice as much as Labour’s modest tax increases would raise. And it does not take into account the implications for the NHS and care sector workforce.