When Nato leaders meet in Washington on July 9, the pivotal topic will be support for Ukraine and strengthening military deterrence against Russia. With the situation on the battlefield gradually turning in Moscow’s favour, the focus will be on Kyiv’s most immediate requirements, along with the need for Europe to increase its defence spending. Yet Nato also needs to discuss and act upon the dangerous new ways Vladimir Putin is finding to impose costs on the US and its allies — with the potential for ruinous spillover effects beyond anybody’s control.
In year three of its war against Ukraine, perceived by the Kremlin as just one thread in its broader confrontation with the west, inflicting pain on Kyiv’s supporters is increasingly a priority for Putin. The Kremlin wants to put a price tag on Nato’s growing involvement in the war on Ukraine’s behalf — as both deterrence and revenge. The latest White House decision to allow Kyiv to use western long-range weapons for strikes inside Russia itself, beyond occupied Ukrainian territory, as well as recent Ukrainian drone strikes on radars that are part of Russia’s nuclear attack early warning system, are prompting Putin to act more boldly than ever.
Since the start of the war, the west’s primary concern has been the possible use of nuclear weapons. Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin is again beating the tired drum of nuclear escalation. Moscow has started drills involving tactical nukes, and Putin is publicly talking about making Russia’s nuclear doctrine more offensive. Still, the risk of actual use is lower than it was in autumn 2022 after Ukraine made battlefield gains. With the outlook now more favourable for Russia, it’s unlikely that Putin will reach for the most potent instrument at his disposal — one better kept as the ultimate insurance against defeat.