The war that has been brewing since October 2023 has started in earnest. The new phase of the Israeli campaign against Hizbollah, the Lebanese Iran-backed militant group, has been intense. Israeli officials have not yet decided to launch a ground operation but some are already arguing for a maximalist approach that would “destroy” an organisation that appears weakened and disoriented, though not yet broken.
Despite some diplomatic activity, there is a sense of futility and resignation among Middle Eastern states, whose efforts to end the war in Gaza have been fruitless. For Arab leaders, the containment of that war and now the conflict in Lebanon is a western responsibility. Let Washington make a solution happen and figure out what follows, they say. Having signalled again their readiness to make peace with Israel in exchange for a Palestinian state, they don’t want to take the initiative again only to be blindsided by Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu.
They are also pleased to see that a chastened Iran is reluctant to escalate and reassured by the conciliatory tone struck by its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, at the UN General Assembly in New York this week. Whether he will be able to withstand pressure from his hardline competitors in Tehran is another matter.