The writer is chief economist at Bank of Singapore
The return of Donald Trump to the White House is likely to mark the return of a stronger dollar in 2025.
Over the next few quarters, the change in presidency is set to push the euro down towards parity and the Chinese yuan from about 7.16 against the greenback to closer to 7.50, levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. If a full-scale trade war erupts in 2025, the euro and the yuan may even fall below their all-time lows of 0.82 and 8.73 hit in 2000 and 1994 respectively.
But over the course of Trump’s second term, the risks of political, fiscal, foreign and central bank crises may fully unwind the greenback’s current strength. Thus, investors shouldn’t rule out the dollar itself making new all-time lows over the next four years.
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