What on earth will happen to US economic policy when Donald Trump becomes president? That question is already sparking widespread concern. And even the supposedly smart money seems unsure of the answer.
This week, for instance, the hedge fund Bridgewater told clients that Trump’s “nominations and rhetoric so far appear to suggest he will try to go big and radically reshape US institutions, global trade, and US foreign policy”. Gulp. But it then went on to stress that this is just “a guess”, since there is “low confidence in the likely programmes now”. In plain English: hedge your bets.
This uncertainty partly reflects Trump’s erratic style and taste for brinkmanship. But it also highlights something else: his recent policy pledges are riddled with contradictions. Investors can only watch to see how these do, or do not, play out.