展望2025

In defence of the annual outlook

Making a periodic review of investment frameworks and the outlook for economies and markets is a good discipline

The writer is senior adviser at Engine AI and Investa, and former chief global equity strategist at Citigroup

’Tis the season to be jolly. Maybe not if you are a jobbing strategist or economist. Instead, you have probably been locked in the office churning out your 2025 outlook report. You do not want to write it, your clients do not want to read it. Snarky financial journalists are circling.

But we still do it. Bloomberg estimated that Wall Street published 650 outlooks for 2024. That would be my base forecast for 2025. The buyside — investors and asset managers — seems to have caught the bug as well. Maybe that is why they do not have time to read the sellside outlooks — they are too busy writing their own.

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