After more than 1,100 days of fighting and hundreds of thousands of people killed or injured, a pause in hostilities in Ukraine is within sight. Now that Kyiv has agreed to a US-brokered proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, the ball — as US secretary of state Marco Rubio made clear — is firmly in Russia’s court. The first question is whether Vladimir Putin will accept the plan; with US officials heading to Moscow, an answer could come soon. An even bigger question is whether such a ceasefire has any chance of opening the way to a stable and lasting peace — or whether Russia will agree to terms anywhere close to what Kyiv could accept.
The Russian president has reason to resist a cessation of hostilities. His troops have the upper hand in part of Russia’s Kursk region that Ukrainian forces occupied and want to hold as a bargaining chip. Putin would have to accept a freezing of the conflict that might become long-term, when his war goals are far from met. He has insisted a ceasefire can begin only once a political settlement is already agreed. Yet in Rubio’s words, if the Kremlin rejects the proposal “we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here”. Putin would antagonise Donald Trump and jeopardise his best chance in years to redraw relations with Washington.
If the Kremlin does not reject the plan or try to add its own preconditions, and there is progress on confidence-building measures including prisoner swaps, the next problem is that negotiating positions are oceans apart. Putin has stuck to peace terms set out last June: withdrawal of Kyiv’s forces from areas they still control of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims to have annexed; and military neutrality and “demilitarisation” for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace plan still includes restoring his country’s territorial integrity.