The Trump administration has already dented the dollar’s status as a key load-bearing pillar of global finance. It would miss it greatly if it went.
It still feels wild to be discussing all this. For years, banging the drum for the dollar surrendering its role as the dominant reserve currency was a niche hobby for crackpots. Some big investors still insist the mighty dollar is here to stay, with no serious alternative to its status. Others point out that dollar doubters are conflating the recent spell of weakness in the buck with its role as a safe harbour and lubricant for global trade.
Both of these pushbacks, though, are blind to the scale of disruption in security policy and geopolitics since Donald Trump re-entered the White House. It is sensible, then, to think about what the US stands to lose. The guess right now is that, in markets and in big power politics, it will be more short-termist, less resilient in any passing crisis, and much more reliant on the kindness of strangers.