Uncertainty plays tricks on the human brain. You should be aware of these tricks because failure to do so could impair your investment returns, not to mention your health. Worse still, failure could impair your ability to rule the world.
From punitive tariffs to threatened annexations, President Donald Trump has laid down a massive barrage of uncertainty. Opinions differ as to why. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, complains that Trump is a mere bully toying with the world. I suspect Trump is up to something more cunning — that he is deploying uncertainty to soften up his opponents in advance of negotiating the big deal. But if that is the case, does he really know how to control this powerful weapon?
Unfortunately, there is no manual to consult when using uncertainty as a policy tool. What we have instead is some intriguing research in neuroscience, and some lessons from historical figures who did possess the knack. Let us take a quick tour.