Donald Trump has been weighing one of the most fateful choices of his presidency. Without direct US military assistance, Israel’s strikes on Iran may be unable to destroy enough of the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme to prevent it from dashing for a bomb. Yet direct American involvement would risk sucking the US into what Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly sees as a quest for regime change in Iran. The consequences could be an escalating conflict that would destabilise the whole region — and beyond.
Trump’s comment on Wednesday that he “may or may not” order a strike left open the possibility that his earlier call for “unconditional surrender” by Tehran and the US military build-up were posturing intended to coerce Iran to submit to strict limits on its nuclear programme. But the dangers from Trump carrying out his threat to join Israel’s military gamble outweigh those of staying on the sidelines.
Few beyond Iranian regime hardliners would wish to see the nation achieve a nuclear weapon. Israel has long seen this as an existential threat. It would hand a devastating force to a theocratic regime that has been a malign influence across the Middle East. Netanyahu, who has long threatened to strike Iran, has sought to persuade Trump that the Islamic regime is already marching towards a bomb and much weakened by a year of Israeli attacks on its regional proxies — creating a unique opportunity to destroy its capabilities.