Three decades ago I became fascinated by the concept of “social silence” — or the idea advanced by intellectuals such as Pierre Bourdieu that what we do not talk about is more important than what we do.
Right now this silence hangs heavily over the markets. This week there has been a cacophony of terrifying noise around geopolitical events — epitomised by President Donald Trump’s warning that America “may or may not” join Israel’s attacks on Iran.
And gloomy economic data keeps on tumbling out. Last week, the World Bank slashed its prediction for global growth (to 2.3 per cent) and America (to 1.4 per cent) — warning that if the 90-day pause of Trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs expires on July 31, we will see “global trade seizing up in the second half of this year”. This week the Federal Reserve also sharply downgraded its US growth projection and raised its inflation forecast. This amounts to stagflation-lite.