Central bankers in the UK heaved a sigh of relief last year when inflation finally dropped below the 2 per cent target, hitting 1.7 per cent in September. More recently, the trend has been firmly in the wrong direction.
Official figures due on Wednesday are likely to show a further uptick in year-on-year consumer price growth to 3.7 per cent in July, compared with 3.6 per cent in June, according to a Reuters poll. Services inflation — which is closely watched by the Bank of England as a sign of underlying price pressures — is also expected to tick higher to 4.8 per cent, from 4.7 per cent previously.
The BoE has argued for much of the year that the bounceback in inflation is likely to prove a temporary affair, but the tone shifted somewhat at the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where a reduction in the key interest rate to 4 per cent was carried by the narrowest of margins in a 5-4 vote.