Quantum computers, which could one day blow past the limits of today’s machines, have been a distant dream in the computing world for decades. The challenges of harnessing the weird properties of subatomic particles for computing has made them more intriguing science project than practical technology. But what if, finally, workable quantum computers are nearly within reach?
Recent technical advances have led companies like Google and IBM to predict they will be able to build full-scale quantum systems by the end of this decade. Sensing that the technology may mature years earlier than it had expected, the Pentagon has begun a study to see if any of the commercial efforts could produce results by 2033.
Quantum systems, when they arrive, will remain tools for specialists rather than the masses. But, in the fields where they have most impact, they could usher in a period of considerable discontinuity. The most widely used forms of encryption would be vulnerable, meaning that anyone hoping to protect today’s information from future prying eyes should already be switching to new forms of quantum-proof cryptography. The technology would put new tools into the hands of scientists who could bring breakthroughs in materials or pharmaceuticals, opening up new processes and markets or spelling doom for old ones. In finance, it could bring a better understanding of complex risks and more efficient pricing in markets.