Confidence in the big-tech bull market has reached the OJ stage. Here’s Barclays:
We remain constructive on AI as an investment theme, but explore some ‘what-ifs’ for data center capex downside.
Kicking the tires of a bear case leads us to focus on how data center capex could stumble: what if power constraints make future builds untenable? What if models stop advancing and compute efficiencies lead to underutilization of assets? What if funding needs outpace cash generation?
Please understand it’s all hypothetical. Demand for compute still outstrips supply. Data centre capex will continue to grow at 30 per cent a year into the next decade. Literally dozens of S&P 1500 companies have been reporting productivity gains from AI. “The arrival of advanced reasoning models such as GPT-5 and AI agents such as Cursor has only increased the total potential demand,” Barclays reassures, citing the confidence of McKinsey, OpenAI and Nvidia.