Greetings. Last week, I dissected my interview with Michael Pettis on China’s role in the global macroeconomy and, in particular, the challenges its surplus poses to others. This question is a staple of global economic policy discussion. While people can and do disagree on what to do about “global imbalances” and who is to blame for them, it is usually taken as axiomatic that they are a problem that we would be better off without.
Today, I want to share some heretical thoughts questioning that premise. I don’t disagree with the view that China should raise domestic consumption spending and redirect the amount of savings it exports abroad. That would undoubtedly be in China’s interest: the country has a lot of poor people who are better recipients of Chinese surpluses than US consumers. But Chinese authorities’ willingness to do this is in doubt, and policy is erratic, seemingly boosting domestic demand with one hand while shrinking it with the other.