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Labour markets stuck in a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ cycle

Employers and employees grow cautious as AI and trade war threaten disruption

Labour markets in many leading economies are freezing up as uncertainty over trade, tax and artificial intelligence causes employers to put off hiring and firing and employees to stick with their jobs.

Employment grew at an annualised rate of just 0.5 per cent in the US and 0.4 per cent across the rest of the G7 economies in the three months to July, according to official data. That is well below the rates seen in 2024.

Instead of cutting staff, companies appear to be largely maintaining their workforces, while slowing hiring at a time when AI threatens to reshape labour markets and US President Donald Trump’s trade war risks hitting global growth.

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