Alphaville is old enough to remember when a 100k non-farm payrolls number was a bit of a dud. But since “liberation day” the US has singularly failed to get clear even this lowly hurdle.
Whether sluggish jobs growth is a signal that we’re on the brink of a recession or a sign that the AI productivity revolution is here is therefore one of the most urgent questions in US macroeconomics policy today.
Goldman Sachs has previously said that we probably won’t really know until we’ve been through a recession. That’s because companies mostly shed jobs in downturns, and tend to focus on essential jobs in the recovery. However in the meantime the investment bank’s economist Elsie Peng has taken a crack at understanding the slowdown in job creation.
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