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Investors increase bets on ECB rate rise in threat to dollar

Prospect of higher borrowing costs in Eurozone, Australia and Canada could leave Federal Reserve as an outlier in 2026

Investors have increased bets that interest rates in the Eurozone could rise next year even as the US continues to lower borrowing costs, in a shift that could further weigh on an already weak dollar.

Swap markets pricing now implies that the European Central Bank is more likely to increase rates in 2026 than cut them.

By contrast, the US Federal Reserve, which is generally considered all but certain to lower borrowing costs at its next meeting on Wednesday, is expected to make at least two further cuts next year.

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