There has been no year in US history quite like the first of Donald Trump’s second term. Though Trump warned Americans that he would be their “retribution”, he offered little idea of the scale on which he would seek to monetise his office. In one form or another, he did vow to take on the universities, regulatory agencies, the rest of the world on trade and the media. That he acted so rapidly, if haphazardly, on all these fronts in 2025 is nevertheless striking. That he encountered such little resistance is even more so. As we enter 2026, those who still believe in America’s checks and balances should bear in mind he is only a quarter of the way through. The battle to preserve the US system will only intensify.
On its own terms, Trump’s America First project to date must be judged a success. He promised to dismantle “the deep state”. His defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has purged the Pentagon and replaced senior generals with men who seem likelier to follow dubious orders — striking civilians in the Caribbean, for example. Hegseth is also enthusiastic about deploying troops at home. Political loyalty tests at the intelligence agencies and the FBI are now routine. The conversion of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency into Trump’s praetorian guard has instilled fear in the lives of millions. It is routine for masked men to whisk suspected undocumented migrants off the streets to remote detention centres.
On tariffs too, Trump has belied widespread forecasts of domestic recession. But little in US history can compare with his monetisation of office. On the Bourbon principle of L’etat, c’est moi, Trump has blurred the lines between public and private. Foreign partners that offer crypto or real estate sweeteners have the opportunity to be treated far better in Trump’s tariff wars than states that operate by rules.