FT商学院

Why we should know what we don’t know

Cognitive blind spots are undermining our ability to see the world as it is, rather than as we would like it to be

A decade ago, the Swiss government made an optimistic decision: it dismantled the last of the cold war explosives it had previously installed in its roads, bridges and tunnels to deter an invasion.

The reason? At the start of the 21st century, western elites generally assumed that globalisation, democracy and the free market were self-evidently good, and would keep spreading, creating peace. It thus seemed pointless to plan for a putative invasion.

No longer. As 2026 dawns, “the security situation around Switzerland is deteriorating year by year [and] a global confrontation is emerging”, as a recent report from the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service points out. So, Swiss leaders — like other governments — are now scrambling to rebuild their defences, as they realise that they misread the future. 

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