The writer is a financial journalist and author of ‘The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump’
It is a mug’s game trying to predict the end of a boom with any precision. They last much longer than anyone might reasonably expect. That is true of bull markets, as well as economic advances. The reason is that markets and economies find ways to support themselves. George Soros, the well-known investor and philanthropist, has a term for it: reflexivity.
In a Financial Times article back in October 2009, Soros defined the concept, in terms of its impact on markets, quite succinctly. “The participants’ views influence the course of events, and the course of events influences the participants’ views,” he wrote.
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