The writer is a professor at Johns Hopkins University and author of ‘Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History’
Iran’s Islamic republic is now battling for its survival. Days of convulsive protests have engulfed the country. And what started as a popular uprising is entering a new phase, which could morph into war. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened that the US would intervene militarily to aid the protesters if Iran’s security forces used deadly force against them. Iran crossed that line three days ago; the death toll is rising rapidly — and Trump is reportedly weighing his options. “The leaders of Iran called yesterday . . . they want to negotiate . . . but we may have to act before that meeting,” he told reporters on Sunday.
Trump could order an attack to punish Iran or to prevent it from suppressing protests. It could even try to eliminate the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hoping Washington could then dictate terms to what remains of the regime. However, military strikes alone will not bring about regime change. The protests are angry, leaderless and disorganised. There is no viable figure or political movement to marshal them and take over from the Islamic republic. The US seemingly has no plan, and if Venezuela is any guide, no appetite for dealing with the messy day after the Islamic republic.