Tarek Mansour believes deeply in prediction markets — or so he tells me again and again. He says they will, variously, play the role of modern oracle, innovative asset, public educator, new journalism and political saviour. At the moment, however, most of the money flowing through them is gambling on American football.
“We’re making the world a little bit smarter about the future, and I think that’s a very valuable thing to build,” Mansour says. “It’s not something that you should take as the Holy Grail truth, but it’s better than the alternatives.”
Mansour is a co-founder and chief executive of prediction market Kalshi, the largest such platform operating in the US. He has chosen to meet me at Serafina, one of a small chain of Italian restaurants, in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District because it is close to Kalshi’s offices and rarely crowded. The sky above New York is a threatening grey, and Kalshi traders are forecasting a 74 per cent chance of rain.