The writer is the author of the forthcoming The Almighty Dollar: 500 Years of the World’s Most Powerful Money
One of the many temptations of the study of economics is the lure of prediction. Gather enough data, and you can say what will probably happen. The more events you have, the better you’re able to predict. This can work with research on large datasets, such as the Nobel Prize-winning analysis from the late 1990s showing how the minimum wage had less of an effect on employment than theory had predicted.
The challenge comes when the dataset shrinks. It’s possible that the dollar’s absolute dominance as a currency is fading. It should be comforting that there have been other dominant currencies. We should be able to know when the end is near, and what’s coming next.