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Aussie and Kiwi dollars surge as traders position for global interest rate rises

Commodity-linked currencies acting as ‘canaries in coal mine’ for shift towards rises in borrowing costs

The Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar have surged ahead of other major currencies this year, as foreign exchange markets point to a change in the direction of global interest rates from cuts to rises.

The Aussie has gained almost 6 per cent against the US dollar this year, taking it to around a three-year high, as the Reserve Bank of Australia this month kicked off what many analysts expect to be a new cycle of rate increases in response to a burst of inflation. Traders are expecting one or two further quarter-point increases this year.

The New Zealand dollar has jumped almost 4 per cent as traders anticipate the country’s first rate rise in the coming months, while the krone is up more than 5 per cent, as an unexpected increase in inflation last month led traders to price in a small chance of a rate increase in the first half of the year.

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