The writer is author of ‘Blood and Treasure, the Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to Ukraine’
Investors have regularly listed geopolitics as one of the rising top risks to financial markets. It would seem they were correct to do so. The escalating war between Iran and Israel and the US has sent energy prices spiralling and caused both equity and bond markets to sink at the same time.
The global market reaction to Middle Eastern geopolitical events in recent years has followed a familiar script. Outbreaks of tension or open fighting have been met with an initial spike in the price of oil as the risk of a long-lasting disruption to global supplies is priced in, before rapidly unwinding.
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