Every tragedy is unique to those who live through it, and that is no doubt the case also for the US-Israeli war against Iran. From an economic point of view, however, it’s largely a repeat of past events. Military conflict is driving up energy prices, which will cause inflation and slowdowns in industrial economies, and monetary tightening may make the pain worse.
Much is being written about how bad the fallout may be. It is probably worth looking harder at natural gas than at oil. A great chart-rich article by my colleagues asks: how serious is the gas price shock? The Bruegel think-tank has a quick-reaction piece about the impact on Europe.
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