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Why oil at $200 a barrel is no longer unthinkable
油价冲上200美元不再难以想象

If supply disruptions persist, holders of stockpiled reserves can’t be relied on to fully cushion the impact
若供应扰动延续,即便动用库存储备,也难以完全对冲其影响。据高盛估算,manbetx app苹果 已累积约80亿桶原油和成品油库存。持有这些储备的各方可以起到缓冲作用,但不能指望它们完全抵消冲击。

How high could oil prices go? The Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas usually transits — is still shut, and the financial world is trying to work out what it means for energy prices. But such estimates are heavily dependent on how long the strait might remain closed and how spooked investors are going to get, which turns the whole thing into an elaborate game of “pin the tail on the donkey”. 

油价会涨到多高?霍尔木兹海峡——通常manbetx app苹果 约五分之一的石油和液化天然气都会经由此处运输——仍处于关闭状态,金融界正试图判断这对能源价格意味着什么。但这类估算在很大程度上取决于海峡会关闭多久以及投资者会有多恐慌,这就把整件事变成了一场复杂的“蒙眼贴驴尾巴”游戏。

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