中东战争

The war of unintended consequences

Israel and the US have achieved many military aims in Iran, but the unpredictable fallout poses threats to everyone

The writer is emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London and author of ‘Strategists and Strategy’ 

A good rule of thumb is that the unintended consequences of any military operation can be as — or more — important than the intended ones. This is particularly the case with the war being waged by Israel and the US against Iran.

In a nod to international law, the Trump administration claimed it went to war because there was an imminent threat that required pre-emption, perhaps even a nuclear weapon or an intercontinental ballistic missile. No intelligence was offered to back up these claims. The messaging accompanying the opening strikes suggested that this conflict would mark the end of a terrible regime that has been persecuting its people and fomenting regional conflict for decades.

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