中东战争

Stagflation is back

War in Iran threatens to hit growth and confidence, deepen governments’ unpopularity and hurt public finances

Cristina Scocchia, chief executive of Illycaffè, the Italian coffee company, is just one of the hundreds of millions of people grappling with the price rises unleashed by the Middle East war — and the accompanying prospect of a slowing economy.

Markets stabilised this week after Donald Trump declared he had held “good and productive” talks with Iran, even though Tehran dismissed his claim. But, for companies, households and governments across the world, the damage from the conflict is mounting, and with it the risk of stagflation — rising inflation mixed with stagnant growth.

Illycaffè, which sells its wares in 135 countries, is bracing for further rises in coffee prices — already high by historical standards — as fertiliser trade disruptions increase production costs. Shipping delays have also worsened following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the aluminium used in the company’s red-and-silver coffee cans.

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