The writer is chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What Went Wrong With Capitalism’
The outcome of the Iran war remains unclear, but the resulting oil shock has revealed a novel vulnerability in the global economy. Never has the world entered a crisis of any kind with such high deficits and debt levels. This burden will limit the ability of governments to cushion the impact of elevated energy prices.
The first post-second world war oil shocks hit in the 1970s and coincided with the dawn of a new era, when governments shifted from running budget deficits occasionally to constantly. But back then, the typical deficit in the US and other major countries was around 2 per cent of GDP. Today, the average deficit has more than doubled; as a result the average government debt level for the G7 countries has risen from 20 per cent of GDP to more than 100 per cent.