Every so often, an electoral result marks a turning point. The defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán after 16 years is one. The constitutional majority projected for the party of Orbán’s challenger Péter Magyar is a striking blow for both Russia’s Vladimir Putin and America’s Donald Trump, and for the loose alliance of Christian populist nationalists for whom Orbán has been a standard bearer. It is positive for democracy and rule of law in Hungary, for EU decision-making, and for the future of Ukraine.
Yet celebration among opponents of the “illiberal” democracy that Orbán espoused should be tempered. Magyar emerged from the prime minister’s Fidesz party and, while pledging to stamp out corruption and promising on Monday to rebuild EU ties, still offers a toned-down version of conservative nationalism. Orbán himself, moreover, had enjoyed an extended period at Hungary’s helm. After 2010 he triumphed three more times in elections deemed “free but not fair” — meaning that although Fidesz dominated the media and electoral process, voters could still express their will.
His 16-year rule led ultimately to economic stagnation, and in recent years high inflation, with Hungary in wealth terms falling behind peers such as Poland, even if for half of that period Poland was ruled by a party that looked to Orbán’s Fidesz as a model. Fidesz’s state capture will take time to unwind, creating a further drag on the country’s progress, though Magyar’s big majority will make life easier for him than it has been for the liberal Polish government led by Donald Tusk since 2023.