The writer is the dean of global business at Tufts University’s Fletcher School
Earlier generations of workers who lost their jobs to Nafta or the China shock suffered twice: first from a lay-off, then from their invisibility. Without professional networks or media fluency, they were drawn to ideological extremes and to a populist who channelled their rage. Today, a fresh wave of white-collar professionals fear losing jobs to AI — they could produce America’s next political shock.
Digital Planet, my research centre at Tufts University, recently released the American AI Jobs Risk Index, assessing vulnerabilities across 784 occupations. The economics are striking: 9.3mn jobs and $757bn in annual income are at risk within five years, rising to 19.5mn jobs and $1.5tn if AI adoption accelerates. But the more consequential finding is the geography of the displacement. The occupations most at risk are concentrated in the “wired belts”: regions that have thrived on data, content and cognitive work. These areas may well become the new rust belts, stretching from the familiar tech hubs of Silicon Valley, Boston and New York to Philadelphia, Atlanta and Phoenix. Suburban knowledge corridors surrounding major US swing-state cities rank among America’s most vulnerable.