Conventional wisdom holds that the US is pretty immune to the energy market fallout from its war on Iran. After all, most of the Gulf’s hydrocarbons go to Asia and parts of Europe. Moreover, the US is a huge energy exporter, and thus its own energy companies are making bank.
As a result, while the IMF has slashed its forecasts and now expects growth to slow in large parts of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, the US expansion will actually speed up — from 2.1 per cent last year to 2.3 per cent in 2026.
The US being immune from and potentially actually benefiting from the Middle East mess is something that Donald Trump has naturally talked up repeatedly.
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