Mark Sobel and Brad Setser are former Treasury officials who now work at OMFIF and the Council on Foreign Relations respectively. Robin Brooks is the IIF’s former chief economist and is now at the Brookings Institution.
President Trump just returned from Beijing, where his economic focus was on “managing trade” — deals on Boeing planes, soyabeans, chips, and creating boards of trade and investment. But China’s massive current account surplus is primarily macroeconomic in nature, and a festering problem that a deal-obsessed president is ill-equipped to tackle.
The surplus is officially reported at 3.7 per cent of GDP in 2025, but there’s reason to think it could be understated by a percentage of GDP, or even a bit more.