Nato leaders will convene in Ankara for their annual summit this week praying that Donald Trump does no further damage to an alliance that has guaranteed peace in most of Europe since the second world war. Nato is both stronger than it was 18 months ago, when Trump returned as US president, and a lot weaker.
It is in better shape because, thanks largely to Trump’s pressure, its non-US members together spent $139bn more in 2025 than 2024 and are investing in readiness and rearmament. It is beginning to learn lessons in innovation and adaptation from Ukraine’s doughty resistance to Russian aggression. Europeans are taking on more command roles even as the US military remains professional and fully engaged.
Nato is at the same time much weaker because confidence that the Trump administration would stand by its allies if they are attacked has cratered. It is not just that the White House does not regard Russia as a real threat to US security. It no longer seems to share the values of its partners, or even the very notion of partnership.