The writer is head of research at Ashmore Group
Brazilian elections rarely go without drama. In 2014, a leading contender died in a plane crash. In 2018, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was prevented from running after being jailed for charges that were later annulled and Jair Bolsonaro, the eventual winner that year, survived a stabbing. In early 2023, Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed the capital after he lost in the 2022 elections.
When Brazil goes to the polls on October 4, there will be at least one predictable outcome though — whoever wins will have to face up to the need for fiscal consolidation. The economics will probably be unforgiving.
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