Will inflation data justify investors’ concerns?
Wall Street is beginning to fret about the prospect of rising inflation. US Treasuries, whose value is eroded by higher inflation, continued to lose ground last week, leaving investors to debate when the sell-off will start seriously troubling equity valuations.
The 10-year break-even rate, a common marker of investors’ inflation expectations, hovered around 2.2 per cent last week, reflecting concerns that a looming $1.9tn stimulus package from the Biden administration, paired with continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, will eventually lead to stronger inflation.
Investors will get their next clue on Friday, when the US Department of Commerce releases its personal consumption expenditures price index for January. Economists forecast a 1.4 per cent year-on-year rise in the core index that strips out volatile food and energy prices, according to Bloomberg. That remains some way below the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent inflation target.