US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell gives the impression of being a measured and cautious policymaker. But beneath the grey suit and mild manner is a man pursuing one of the highest-risk policy experiments in economic history.
Powell is betting that economic growth will come roaring back later this year as the economy reopens, but that inflation, after a brief overshoot of target, will fall obediently back to about 2 per cent and stay there. Thus, there is no need to lift rates this year, or next, or the year after. Only in 2024 does Powell foresee the need for the first hike.
In Powell’s outlook, a 2021 growth rate of 6.5 per cent and unemployment of 4.5 per cent coexist with full-on monetary stimulus, complete with zero interest rates and yearly Fed asset purchases of $1.4tn. If this policy stance seems incongruous, that’s because it is.