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Coronavirus and the global recovery: the dangers of whiplash economics

Ten days ago, markets were spooked by inflation. But the spread of the Delta variant is now forcing countries to reverse plans to reopen

Much of Australia is back in a pandemic lockdown. Tokyo opened the Olympics on Friday under a state of emergency. The Netherlands has had to reimpose restrictions on cafés, bars and nightlife. New travel warnings have hit Spain’s hopes of a revival in tourism, and Italians will soon have to show a health pass if they want to see a film or swim, after prime minister Mario Draghi followed France’s lead and took steps to prod people into seeking vaccination.

The unwelcome return of restrictions has planted a new fear in the minds of investors: that the rapid spread of the coronavirus Delta variant could bring the global recovery to a juddering halt.

Just 10 days ago, markets were fixated on the risks of overheating economies stoking a surge in inflation — piling pressure on policymakers to consider an early withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus measures. This week began with a sharp sell-off in global equities as fears grew over the spread of the Delta variant. By midweek, stock prices had bounced back — but US Treasury yields remained at rock bottom levels, suggesting creeping doubts about the strength of the global recovery.

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