Traders have dramatically scaled back their expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in the years ahead, as a murkier economic outlook and fears of a peak in economic expansion raise doubts over the path of monetary policy.
Prices of eurodollar futures, which are used by traders to bet on the direction of interest rates in the months ahead, have rallied sharply over the past three months in a sign of changing views. As those prices have risen, the rates on eurodollar futures, which move in an inverse direction, have fallen.
The price action indicates that traders believe US rates will rise much less than they did in April or May, when strong inflation pressures had money managers girding for what they believed could be an aggressive response from the Fed.