The world’s financial markets rarely sit glued to their screens waiting for the no-nonsense Norges Bank to pronounce its verdict on Norway’s monetary policy. This week was different. The 0.25 percentage point rise in its interest rate was the most visible expression yet of a turn in the monetary policy cycle that is spreading across the world.
No longer are central bankers seeking to do whatever they can to ensure money is available for households, companies and governments to borrow at exceptionally favourable rates. Along with Norway’s monetary tightening, the first in any advanced economy since the pandemic began, four emerging economy central banks — Pakistan, Hungary, Paraguay and Brazil — also raised the cost of borrowing this week, while the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England both signalled a move towards tightening monetary policy.
These guardians of monetary policy are generally satisfied that the economic recovery has proved stronger than they feared at the start of the year. But they are beginning to worry that money might become too cheap for too long. That would threaten rising inflation, excess borrowing and even financial instability as the world emerges from the coronavirus crisis.