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Surging real yields blow hole in ‘everything rally’

Rise in expected bond returns after accounting for inflation poses ‘test for risk assets’

A jump in real yields — the return bond investors can expect once inflation is taken into account — has jolted markets in early 2022 and is behind a pullback in high-flying technology stocks, investors say.

The yield on 10-year inflation-linked US government bonds has surged 0.24 percentage points since the end of December to minus 0.86 per cent, as investors position for the end of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying programme and bet on interest rate rises from the US central bank this year.

The move has come at a time when investors have become slightly less anxious about high inflation over the coming decade, or at least more confident that the Fed can keep a lid on price rises.

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