Almost all central bankers in the US and Europe agree rates must rise to tackle soaring inflation. What is open for debate is where they should stop.
Monetary policymakers and markets are trying to assess where lies the “Goldilocks”, or neutral, level of rates — the optimal level where an economy is neither overheating or being held back. But, after almost 15 years of tepid inflation and ultra-low borrowing costs, no one is quite sure what “just right” looks like.
“Everybody is trying to understand where the neutral rate is and where the tightening cycle will end up,” said Camille de Courcel, head of strategy for G10 rates in Europe at BNP Paribas. “It will be the driving factor for rates markets in the coming months.”
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