Has inflation slowed US consumer spending?
EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco says the US has already reached peak inflation, but the big factor for consumers will be the pace at which price growth cools, and what level it eventually reaches.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure that strips out food and energy prices, has begun receding. Core PCE rose 5.2 per cent year over year in March, compared with a 5.3 per cent increase in February. Economists expect a further decline to a 4.9 per cent rate of increase in the April data, which are published on Friday. PCE is released after other inflation reports, including the consumer price index, but as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, it is closely watched by investors.
Oren Klachkin, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, will also be monitoring the consumer spending figures that are included in the PCE data to see if there is a shift from goods to services. “We actually want to see a rotation towards services,” he said. “It means that we’re returning towards normal after two-plus years of dealing with Covid.”