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Grumpy investors see bright side in growth risks

Slower pace of GDP expansion could mean a slower pace of monetary tightening by central banks

I am allowed to say this because I come from farming stock myself: farmers complain constantly, about everything. Too wet, too dry, too hot, too cold, etc etc. Investors are not so different.

The opening months of this year brought an inflation panic. Bonds dropped hard because they are allergic to inflation, which eats in to their (rather skimpy) fixed payouts. Stocks dropped because fund managers decided that the US Federal Reserve would dish out half-point rate rises like sweets at every meeting to try and pull inflation down. The “everything rally” unravelled and left many fund managers with nowhere to hide. The horror!

Now, the inflation panic appears to be abating. The new worry in town is of the potential for a serious slowdown in growth or even, in the worst-case scenario, a full-blown global recession. Kindly adjust your grand market narratives accordingly.

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