Colleges have traditionally acted as economic shock absorbers in the US. When the economy stalls — or is about to stall — demand for higher education goes up. Adult workers return to school to improve their job prospects. Young people stay in class in the hope their graduation will coincide with renewed economic growth.
Past downturns suggest as much. During the Great Recession, the number of students enrolled in colleges jumped by 2.9mn, or nearly 16 per cent. It went from 18.7mn students in the autumn of 2007 to a peak of 21.6mn in the fall of 2010, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.
As talks grow of another recession, the layperson might assume that another admissions boom awaits. Do not bet on it, though.
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