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Gas crisis raises recession risk for inflation-hit eurozone economy

Slight expansion expected for second quarter, but outlook for second half of year is bleak

The eurozone is forecast to eke out growth fractionally above zero in the second quarter, but economists expect a steady deterioration in the bloc’s economy over the next year as recession risks loom.

Eurostat’s first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, out on Friday, is expected to show an expansion of 0.1 per cent from the previous quarter, according to a poll by Reuters. That marks a sharp deterioration from 0.6 per cent growth over the previous three months and would be the weakest performance since a surge in coronavirus infections and restrictions dragged the bloc into a short recession at the start of 2021.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has sent energy and food prices soaring, eroding the spending power of consumers while threatening to unleash an energy crisis that leaves manufacturers and households short of gas over the coming winter.

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