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Why the Fed might be at ‘neutral’ already on monetary policy

Strong dollar and the unwinding of quantitative easing are equivalent to 1 percentage point rate rise
The writer is president of Yardeni Research and author of Fed Watching for Fun & Profit

Most Fed watchers seem to spend more time criticising the US Federal Reserve than watching it. It’s easy to do. Anyone can play the game and attacking the Fed is like shooting at sitting ducks: officials at the central bank can’t respond directly given their public role.

Recently, Fed chair Jay Powell has been skewered by his critics for claiming that the federal funds rate was now at “neutral” at his July 27 press conference just after the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee had voted unanimously to raise its benchmark federal funds rate range by 0.75 percentage points to 2.25 to 2.50 per cent.

His suggestion that the Fed is on the borderline of restrictive territory and therefore closer to being done tightening was well received by both bond and stock investors, but not by the Fed’s critics.

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